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Last week, I had coffee with a seller client in North Ranch who asked me a question I've been hearing more and more: "Davis, should I wait until spring to list my home?" My answer surprised him. After selling nearly 1,000 homes since 2009 and tracking every data point in our Conejo Valley real estate market where the median price hit $1,116,250 in November 2025 , I'm telling most of my clients something counterintuitive about their 2026 move timeline.

The data tells a story that's different from what most homeowners expect, and it's forcing me to completely rethink the advice I give about market timing. Here's what I'm seeing on the ground and why your 2026 strategy might need to change.

What Is the Current Median Home Price in Conejo Valley 2026?

The numbers from early 2026 paint a complex picture. In Westlake Village, we're seeing median sale prices around $1.6 million in February 2026 , while Thousand Oaks is coming in at $1.0 million as of March 2026, down 16.3% since last year . But here's what those headline numbers don't tell you.

When I drill down into the hyperlocal data for my Conejo Valley clients, the variations are dramatic. Lake Sherwood new construction listings are hitting the market at $12.9 million , while well-positioned homes in established neighborhoods are still commanding premium prices. The key insight I'm sharing with clients is that well-presented, accurately priced homes can land near list price, while dated or mispriced properties often see 3 to 15 percent concessions .

Thousand OaksWestlake VillageNewbury ParkSimi Valley$1.0M$1.6M$1.25M$850K$0$1M$1.5M$2M

Source: MLS Data, March 2026

City Median Price Days on Market Year-over-Year Change
Westlake Village $1,600,000 58 days +26.7%
Thousand Oaks $1,000,000 54 days -16.3%
Newbury Park $1,250,000 45 days +5.2%
Simi Valley $850,000 50 days -5%

How Many Days Are Homes Taking to Sell in Westlake Village and Thousand Oaks Right Now?

This is where the story gets interesting, and frankly, concerning for sellers who think they can wait it out. We have 444 active listings in the Conejo Valley compared to 361 this time last year (a 23% increase), and homes are taking 65 days on average to sell versus 50 days last November .

But here's the data point that should worry every seller: expired listings doubled to 100 unsold homes per month versus 50 last year, indicating a divide between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay . I'm seeing this firsthand with listings that sit because owners haven't adjusted their expectations to current market realities.

The most recent data I'm tracking shows that average days on market has been steadily increasing over the last 2 years up to 44 days on average versus 36 days last January . Even more telling, homes are taking 51 days to sell, and expired listings were up 49% from last year .

What this means for my seller clients is simple: the "list it and they will come" mentality from 2021-2022 is dead. Buyers are showing up more cautiously, not in a rush, and willing to wait it out until the right home clicks .

What Will Mortgage Rates Look Like Through 2026?

Interest rates are the wild card that's reshaping my entire approach to client timing advice. The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.38% as of March 26, 2026, up from 6.22% the previous week , but the forecast shows more complexity ahead.

Fannie Mae forecasts mortgage rates to end 2026 at 5.9% , while Morgan Stanley strategists forecast that a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield could help lower the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to around 5.50% to 5.75% by mid-2026 . The catch? Strategists expect mortgage rates to then rise again in the second half of 2026 .

Here's the math that matters to my clients: For a $1 million home, the monthly cost today could be $4,900 at a rate of 6.20%, versus $4,542 at 5.50%, a difference of roughly $358 per month . That's over $4,000 annually in payment savings if rates drop as predicted.

But here's what I'm telling sellers: don't bet your timeline on rate predictions. The Federal Reserve is likely planning only one potential rate cut for the rest of 2026, and their cautious approach gives lenders less room to offer significantly lower mortgage rates .

When Should I List My Home for Maximum Profit in 2026?

This is where I'm completely changing my advice to Conejo Valley clients, and it might surprise you. The traditional wisdom says the best months to sell a home are from spring through late summer (April to October), with May and June for highest profit . But 2026 isn't following traditional patterns.

February surprisingly takes second place nationally, with a 12.8% seller premium compared to May's 13.1% . More importantly for local sellers, our local market gets going in January and inventory builds through spring, with the Conejo Valley seeing 50+ new listings each week during busy season, more than double what we're seeing now .

Here's my controversial take: I'm telling many of my 2026 seller clients to consider listing in February or March, before the spring rush hits. Why? Because fewer listings usually means homes sell quickly, but that's not happening now. New listings were down about 20% from last year, yet nearly 50% more homes went unsold .

The worst months remain consistent: November emerges as the worst month with only a 6.3% seller premium, compared to May's 12.8%. The three worst months (November, December, October) see premiums consistently below 7% .

For California specifically, June is the best month for top dollar with homes selling for $38,223 above annual average, while April is fastest for selling with 37 days average .

Frequently Asked Questions About Conejo Valley Real Estate Timing

Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before listing my home?

Based on current data, this strategy could backfire. While Fannie Mae forecasts rates ending 2026 at 5.9% , waiting means competing with more inventory as spring arrives. The Conejo Valley can see 50+ new listings each week during busy season , which means your competition doubles while buyer activity may not increase proportionally.

How long are homes actually taking to sell in early 2026?

It varies dramatically by pricing and condition. Average homes sell for about 1% below list price and go pending in around 58 days, while hot homes can sell for around list price and go pending in around 34 days . The key is realistic pricing from day one.

What's happening with luxury home sales in Westlake Village?

The luxury market remains active but selective. Even in the $2M to $3M range, and even in Sherwood, North Ranch, and lake-adjacent neighborhoods, buyers are writing strong offers when the home makes sense . However, dated or mispriced properties often see 3 to 15% concessions depending on tier and timing .

Is the Conejo Valley market shifting toward buyers or sellers?

We're in a balanced market trending toward buyers. This does not yet signify a change from a seller's market to a buyer's market, but it does indicate both sides now have similar negotiating power. We are operating at a plateau . For sellers, this means pricing strategy and home presentation matter more than ever.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in the Conejo Valley?

Davis Bartels and the DB Real Estate Group have helped nearly 1,000 families navigate the local market since 2009. Whether you're exploring your options or ready to make a move, reach out for a no-pressure conversation about your goals.

Contact Davis: davisbartels.com