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The Conejo Valley housing market 2025 tells a story of dramatic change and opportunity. After nearly a decade of relentless price growth, this affluent region spanning Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, and Oak Park has entered a new phase characterized by surging inventory and more balanced buyer-seller dynamics. For buyers who've been waiting on the sidelines, this represents the best purchasing environment since 2019. For sellers, strategic positioning has never been more critical.

What is the Median Home Price in Westlake Village and Thousand Oaks in 2025?

The median price of a Conejo Valley home reached $1,116,250 in November 2025, representing a 2.9% increase from $1,085,000 the previous November. However, this overall figure masks significant variation across local markets that buyers and sellers must understand.

In Westlake Village, median home prices hit $1.6 million, up 26.7% since last year , making it one of the region's strongest performing markets. The premium reflects the community's reputation for luxury amenities, proximity to RED O Restaurant and the Four Seasons, plus easy access to entertainment industry hubs.

Thousand Oaks shows a different pattern, with median home prices at $1.0 million, down 16.3% since last year. This adjustment reflects the broader market recalibration as buyers become more selective and inventory increases. Homes in Thousand Oaks are selling after an average of 44 days on market, compared to 48 days last year.

Thousand OaksWestlake VillageNewbury ParkOak Park$1.0M$1.6M$1.025M$980KMedian Home Prices by City(November 2025)

Source: Redfin, Rocket Homes, November 2025

Newbury Park maintains strong fundamentals with a median price of $1,025,000, representing a healthy 9.1% year-over-year increase. This growth reflects the area's appeal to families seeking newer construction, excellent schools, and more affordable entry points compared to Westlake Village.

Why Has Housing Inventory Surged 28% in the Conejo Valley?

The most dramatic shift in the Conejo Valley housing market 2025 has been inventory expansion. November ended with 444 homes for sale, up 23% from last November, representing 83 more homes than the previous year. This surge stems from multiple converging factors that reveal deeper market dynamics.

First, expired listings doubled to 100 unsold homes versus 50 last year, indicating a divide between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay. Many homeowners who delayed selling during the pandemic's ultra-low rate environment are now entering the market, but their pricing expectations haven't adjusted to current buyer realities.

Price reductions have become commonplace, with 56 price reductions in the Conejo Valley in a single week, a stark contrast to the recent past when homes would list on Friday and sell over asking price by Monday.

City Active Listings Year-over-Year Change Avg. Days on Market Price Trend
Westlake Village 220 +15% 58 days +26.7%
Thousand Oaks 180 +22% 44 days -16.3%
Newbury Park 103 +18% 41 days +9.1%
Conejo Valley Total 444 +23% 65 days +2.9%

Second, the psychological shift among sellers is profound. Many homeowners are still holding ultra-low pandemic-era rates, which has historically kept inventory constrained. However, life events like job changes, upsizing, downsizing, and moves closer to family are beginning to override the "I love my 3% rate" mindset.

For buyers exploring neighborhoods from The Paddock sports bar in Thousand Oaks to the boutique shops near Moody Rooster in Westlake Village, this inventory surge creates opportunities that haven't existed in years.

How Are Mortgage Rates Affecting Buyers in Ventura County?

Mortgage rates ended November at approximately 6.2%, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.8% last year and representing the lowest rates seen in 2025. While this improvement provides some relief, rates remain significantly elevated compared to the pandemic era, fundamentally reshaping buyer behavior across Ventura County.

Rates peaked in April 2025 at 6.83% before entering a downward trend. Looking ahead to 2026, the California Association of Realtors forecasts rates dropping to 6.0%, while Fannie Mae expects roughly 5.9% by late 2026.

The rate environment has created distinct buyer segments with different market experiences:

First-Time Buyers: Homes traditionally appealing to younger buyers and families have been most affected. With high home prices, rising interest rates, and increasing insurance costs, many young families remain hesitant to enter the market.

Move-Up Buyers: Those who've gained equity from current homes remain active. Higher-end properties are sometimes selling faster than mid-range homes, as these buyers have more financial flexibility.

Downsizers: More established buyers, typically less impacted by economic shifts, continue driving market activity. Single-story and downsizer-friendly homes are still performing well comparatively.

Local mortgage professionals report that buyers who would have qualified for $1.2 million homes at 3% rates now qualify for approximately $850,000 at current rates, fundamentally shifting which Conejo Valley neighborhoods they can access. This explains some of the pricing pressure in mid-tier markets while luxury segments maintain strength.

What Does 2026 Hold for Conejo Valley Real Estate?

For buyers, 2026 should feel more stable. Rates are expected to settle into the high-5s to low-6s, inventory should continue to build, and home price growth should stay modest. While not a complete buyer's market, buyers will have options again and room to negotiate, especially on homes that have been sitting.

For sellers, 2026 is all about strategy. With more inventory and cautious buyers, pricing correctly from the start and ensuring homes show well will make a significant difference. Properties near desirable amenities like Mastero's Steakhouse in Thousand Oaks or walking distance to The Promenade at Westlake will maintain competitive advantages.

Market predictions for 2026 based on current trends:

  • Mortgage rates expected to drop to 6.0% according to C.A.R., with Fannie Mae projecting 5.9% by late 2026
  • California home prices forecast to increase 3.6% to reach $905k statewide median, according to realtor.com research
  • Home sales expected to increase 2.0% as more buyers accept 6% mortgage rates as the "new normal"
  • Conejo Valley likely to outperform state averages due to sustained demand from relocating professionals and coastal retirees

The most successful 2026 transactions will likely involve sellers who price strategically from day one and buyers who move decisively when the right property appears. The days of homes selling themselves are over; both market knowledge and professional guidance have become essential.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Conejo Valley Housing Market 2025

Is now a good time to buy in Westlake Village or Thousand Oaks?

This represents a rare window of opportunity for buyers. With more homes to choose from and sellers far more negotiable than they've been in years, according to Redfin data, qualified buyers have advantages not seen since 2019. However, waiting for significant rate drops in an already appreciating market may lead to increased competition and higher prices. Consider buying when you're ready versus trying to time market dips.

Why are Westlake Village home prices still rising while Thousand Oaks prices have dropped?

Westlake Village attracts buyers with higher budgets and more rate flexibility, including cash buyers and luxury relocations. From North Ranch to Lake Sherwood to Westlake Island, luxury remains in demand, especially with relocating professionals, coastal retirees, and cash-rich investors. Thousand Oaks serves more rate-sensitive buyers who've been priced out by current mortgage costs, leading to natural price adjustments.

How long are homes taking to sell in the Conejo Valley?

It took 65 days on average to sell a home in November 2025, up 29% from last November, representing 15 more days than the previous year. However, well-priced, turnkey properties in desirable locations still move within 30-40 days, while overpriced or outdated homes can sit for 90+ days.

What inventory levels should I expect in different Conejo Valley cities?

The market now offers 3 months of inventory overall, giving buyers leverage in some negotiations. Interest rate-sensitive segments under $750K remain competitive with only 2.7 months of inventory. The $1M-$2M range represents the most active and dynamic segment, ideal for move-up buyers or new arrivals to the area.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in the Conejo Valley?

Davis Bartels and the DB Real Estate Group have helped nearly 1,000 families navigate the local market since 2009. Whether you're exploring your options or ready to make a move, reach out for a no-pressure conversation about your goals.

Contact Davis: davisbartels.com