Mortgage rates have dropped to about 6.0%, the most favorable borrowing environment Conejo Valley buyers have seen in three years. Yet buyers still hold the upper hand, with homes averaging 44 days on the market versus 36 days last January. For buyers who are ready, lower rates and more negotiating room make for a reasonable window before spring competition builds.
With the median Conejo Valley home price at $1,116,250 and inventory up 23% from last year, 2026 marks a shift toward balance after years of extreme seller advantage. Homes are selling for about 5% below asking price on average, giving buyers negotiating leverage they haven't had in several years.
Key Takeaways
- Mortgage rates fell to about 6.0% in early 2026, the lowest level in three years according to Freddie Mac data.
- Homes average 44 days on market versus 36 days last January, with properties selling approximately 5% below asking price on average.
- Conejo Valley inventory increased 23% from last year to 444 homes for sale, while median home price sits at $1,116,250.
- The rate drop from 6.8% to 6.0% saves buyers approximately $320 monthly on a $1.1 million home with 20% down.
- Expired listings nearly doubled compared to last year as some sellers haven't adjusted expectations to current buyer behavior.
Mortgage rates dropped to about 6.0% in early 2026, the lowest in three years, down from 6.8%. Even so, Conejo Valley buyers retain negotiating power: homes average 44 days on market, sell about 5% below asking price, and inventory rose 23% to 444 listings, with the median home price at $1,116,250.
What Do 6 Percent Interest Rates Mean for Conejo Valley Home Buyers?
Mortgage rates reached 6.0% in March 2026, according to Freddie Mac's national survey, down from 6.8% at the end of last year and the lowest level in three years. For a $1.1 million home with 20% down, the difference between 6.8% and 6.0% saves roughly $320 per month in principal and interest, or about $115,000 over the life of a 30-year loan.
Quoted rates vary by lender and borrower profile. At the time of writing, California 30-year fixed quotes ranged from 6.375% to 6.68%, with local lenders in the Conejo Valley offering competitive programs. The California Association of Realtors forecast home sales to increase 2.0% in 2026 as buyers accept that 6% is closer to the "new normal" than a stop on the way to much lower rates.
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS, Local MLS Data, March 2026
Not every buyer benefits equally. First-time buyers have struggled the most, since affordability favors move-up and downsizing buyers who bring equity. Still, 6% rates plus more inventory create more openings for every buyer type than existed at the rate peak.
You can hear the shift in conversations at Bonibi Coffee in The Landing and Philz Coffee in Thousand Oaks, where the talk has turned from waiting to buying. Phones are ringing more and activity is picking up, but without the frenzy of previous years.
How Have Days on Market Changed in Westlake Village and Thousand Oaks?
Homes are taking 44 days to sell on average versus 36 days a year earlier, a meaningful shift from the 25-day average during peak market periods. That extra time lets buyers evaluate properties properly, arrange inspections, and negotiate terms without pressure.
The number of expired (unsold) listings has nearly doubled compared to last year, a sign that some sellers haven't adjusted expectations to current buyer behavior. Today's buyers jump quickly on homes that are well-priced and move-in ready, but if a seller misses that initial window of interest, momentum is hard to regain.
| Metric | February 2025 | February 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Days on Market | 36 days | 44 days | +22% |
| Expired Listings (Monthly) | 39 | 74 | +90% |
| Active Inventory | 354 | 356 | +1% |
| Median Sale Price | $1,200,000 | $1,135,000 | -5.4% |
Market behavior varies significantly by price point and location. Some homes get multiple offers the first weekend while others sit. Homes near popular amenities like Paradise Falls in Wildwood Regional Park or within walking distance to The Shoppes at Westlake Village continue to move faster than properties requiring updates or located on busy streets.
The longer timeline also means sellers whose homes have been sitting grow more motivated, and that is where most of a buyer's negotiating leverage comes from.
Where Are Inventory Levels Today in the Conejo Valley?
Inventory stood at 444 homes for sale at the end of November, up 23% from a year earlier, according to Redfin data. That gives buyers meaningful choice for the first time in years, though levels remain below historical averages for the region.
Inventory varies significantly by community and price range:
- Westlake Village: Townwide medians near the mid-$1.5M range in early 2026 with premium lakefront properties commanding significantly higher prices
- Thousand Oaks: Median price just over $1 million, offering more accessible entry points
- North Ranch/Lang Ranch: Premium pricing, driven in part by feeding into Westlake High School, which many local families consider the best overall high school in the Conejo Valley
Inventory has been building month over month while demand has cooled from its peak. That shift creates opportunity for buyers willing to act decisively on well-positioned properties.
Specific neighborhoods show varying inventory patterns. Properties near top-rated schools like Westlake Elementary (GreatSchools 9/10 overall, 10/10 test scores) or White Oak Elementary (9/10 overall, 9/10 test scores) maintain tighter inventory levels. Areas requiring longer commutes or lacking premium amenities see more sustained inventory.
What Should Buyers Expect in Spring 2026?
Writing in early April 2026, here is how I see it. Lower rates don't usually bring buyers back all at once; they return gradually as spring approaches. As more buyers accept that this may be "as good as it gets" on rates for now, competition should increase.
I don't expect prices to fall much, but buyers should have time to think, negotiate, and decide without feeling rushed, with real options and room to move on price, especially on homes that have been sitting.
Spring traditionally brings the heaviest buyer activity to the Conejo Valley. Families time moves around the school year, relocations cluster in warmer months, and a weekend hiking Wildwood Regional Park's 1,765 acres or sitting on the patio at The Stonehaus at Westlake Village Inn has turned more than a few lookers into buyers.
Key expectations for spring 2026:
- Gradual competition increase: More buyers entering market but not returning to bidding war levels
- Rate stability: Rates expected to settle into the high 5s to low 6s
- Selective buyer behavior: Buyers are active but patient and selective, willing to wait until the right home clicks
- Continued negotiation opportunities: Buyers should keep more leverage than they have had in years
Geographic preferences are shifting as well. In recent months, 23% of Westlake Village homebuyers searched to move out of the area, while 4% of national homebuyers searched to move into Westlake Village from outside metros. Houston, Boston, and Washington were the top source markets for incoming buyers, which likely reflects corporate relocations to companies along the 101 corridor.
Frequently Asked Questions About Conejo Valley Interest Rates and Market Conditions
Should I wait for interest rates to drop further before buying?
Waiting for rates to drop sounds logical, but it's not always the best strategy. Lower rates tend to bring more buyers back, which means more competition and upward pressure on prices. Many buyers choose to buy while competition is lower and refinance later if rates improve. Forecasters have been predicting rate drops for years with mixed results, so buying when you're personally ready usually beats trying to time rate cuts.
How competitive is the school situation in Westlake Village and Thousand Oaks?
Westlake High School has a 10/10 GreatSchools Rating and is ranked within the top 20% of all public schools in California, according to GreatSchools data. Most local parents and agents consider Westlake High School the best overall high school in the Conejo Valley, and that reputation alone draws a lot of buyers into the district. Properties in areas feeding to top schools maintain premium values and tighter inventory.
Are home prices expected to drop significantly in 2026?
The California Association of Realtors forecasts home prices to increase approximately 3.6% in 2026. The Conejo Valley often outperforms the broader market thanks to steady demand and limited housing supply. Prices can fluctuate, but sharp drops have historically been uncommon here. Current data shows the median relatively flat, bouncing between roughly $1.1M and $1.2M depending on the month.
What makes now a good time to buy compared to recent years?
As of this writing, the combination of 6% rates (the lowest in three years), homes selling about 5% below asking price, and 44 days of average market time versus 36 days last January adds up to the most balanced buyer environment since before 2020: more room to negotiate and less pressure to act.
Thinking About Buying or Selling in the Conejo Valley?
Davis Bartels and the DB Real Estate Group have closed 500+ transactions in the local market since 2009. If any of this applies to your situation, happy to talk it through, no pressure.
Contact Davis: davisbartels.com
